People have been asking us our Q4 predictions for S&P 500. This little picture quantitatively shows what’s driving S&P500 in Q4
People have been talking about inflation “now”, however consider this, that market is always forward looking — so Inflation was a key factor in 2021 Q3 till 2022 Q2 — not now. Right now as Fed “reacts” to issue, you get’s to hear it more in media
Last quarter 2022 Q3 was all about US dollar strength which was a due to increasing interest rates and US dollar getting stronger.
As we see in 2022 Q4 — It’s all about “hope” and “sentiment”— only factors fueling this rally is potential for Fed to pivot. Lack of any other macro-factor contributing to predictive power in Q4 makes us think that this rally should fizzle out pretty soon
We are humbled to see our earlier predictions coming out true:
For example in 2020, We predicted Russia/Iran conflict in Mid 2022, see link
Similarly, we predicted real estate peak in 2021. It was not only predicting — we actually sold our house and moved into a rental home — see link
Predictions are ours — actions are yours — MakeChoice.org